Britain’s Border Force commander has warned that 4,000 migrants are massing in camps on the French coast as part of preparations to cross the English Channel.
Major General Duncan Capps told MPs that a “mass casualty” event was now inevitable given the “increasing size and occupancy of boats” helping migrants break into Britain.
Maj Gen Capps set out his deep concerns at the Home Affairs select committee today.
Citing French estimates, he said the number of migrants gathered in makeshift camps across northern France has roughly doubled compared with normal levels.
The border chief said about 3,800 migrants are currently split between sites near Dunkirk and Calais, waiting to attempt the crossing.
“There are a lot of people in the camps at the moment, which is bad in one respect because a lot of people are there.
“It also represents the fact that the French are making it very difficult, particularly in the Dunkerque-Calais area, to get across," he told the committee.
He said that increased police patrols along French beaches have significantly reduced launches from traditional departure points.
In response, smuggling networks have shifted to launching dinghies from locations farther along the coastline.
New launch sites include Belgium and Normandy, the latter involving a journey of nearly 60 nautical miles.
“If people try that in the winter, we are going to have loss of life,” Maj Gen Capps warned, describing it as his foremost concern.
“You will have seen this year we had a boat with 230 people in it,” he told MPs.
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“Extraordinary, and I ought to put on record that it is only a matter of time till we have a mass casualty event in the Channel… It is extraordinary that it hasn't happened so far."
The border chief also revealed that his officers had joined French counterparts in rescuing 168 people from a single vessel in French waters, with no drownings, which he described as “quite an extraordinary thing”.
More than 50 people perished during crossing attempts in 2024, based on French coastguard records, making it the deadliest year since the crisis began.
Turning to deportations, Maj Gen Capps acknowledged that removing those who broke into Britain on small boats has proved enormously challenging.
Since crossings began, he said only five per cent of arrivals have been sent back, a figure he put at fewer than 7,000 people.
The border chief explained that many on the journey come from "countries that we don't have returns agreements with," making removal through conventional channels all but impossible.
He pointed to the now-closed one-in-one-out arrangement with France as having made a "big difference because it allowed us to return Afghans, Iranians, Yemenis, Somalians in a way that we weren't able to do before."
Maj Gen Capps suggested that joining a broader European returns agreement could significantly ease the task, and indicated that the Home Office might also revisit the concept of foreign returns hubs.
Andy Burnham has claimed small boat crossings are falling significantly under his Government, telling GB News: “The numbers can fluctuate but overall boat crossings are down, down quite significantly year on year. So that does suggest that the plan is working.”
The Prime Minister has vowed to step up action against people-smuggling gangs, telling GB News: “We will now change our tactics and we will be relentless in chasing them down.”
Mr Burnham has defended the £662million deal with France, arguing: “The payment by results deal has created a change. There is more law enforcement on the other side of the channel in summer 2026 than there was last summer.”
He has acknowledged that the Government still has more work to do, telling GB News: “That's not good enough.”
The Prime Minister has insisted that restoring control of the border remains a priority, declaring: “The public wants to see control being exerted, and while we’ve made progress, there is more to do, and I recognise that completely.”
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